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Prediction for CME (2015-09-18T04:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-09-18T04:30Z
CME Note: Geomagnetic activity is likely due to the mix with a coronal hole high speed stream
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-09-20T05:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -75
Dst min. time: 2015-09-20T16:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-09-20T12:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-09-18T08:53Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 864
Longitude (deg): -2
Latitude (deg): -10
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence
Event in AR2419 appears to trigger AR2415. No Lasco images for early stages of emission available, there is a possibility for concurrent but separate cones. Several analyses by two forecasters produce speeds around 850km/s, approximately equal to detected type-II burst. Low confidence in magnitude of event - on balance most probable G2. Immediately precedes CH HSS in ENLIL that is likely to be CH04, events are assumed not to overlap but immediately succeed each other to give G2.

Lead Time: 36.28 hour(s)
Difference: -6.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-09-18T17:10Z

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